Global patterns and trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality across 185 countries

Summary

Kim, J, Harper, A, McCormack, V et al. Global patterns and trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality across 185 countries. Nat Med 31, 1154–1162 (2025). doi.org/10.1038/s41591-025-03502-3

Introduction

Updates of the current and projected estimates of the breast cancer burden are critical to monitoring the success of efforts in breast cancer control, such as the World Health Organization Global Breast Cancer Initiative (WHO GBCI), which aims to reduce breast cancer mortality by 2.5% per year. 

This study provides a comprehensive overview of the current estimates and future projections of the global burden of breast cancer (using data from GLOBOCAN 2022) and an evaluation of which countries have met the WHO GBCI target on reduction in breast cancer mortality. 

Results

In 2022, 2.3 million new cases (representing 25% of all cancers in women) and 670,000 breast cancer-related deaths (representing 16% of all cancer-related deaths in women) were estimated. By 2050, estimates suggest an increase in annual incidence to 3.2 million/year, and increase in deaths to 1.1 million/year, with the largest relative increases predicted in countries with low Human Development Index (HDI) scores.

Following age-adjustment, persistent differences are observed in incidence and mortality rates, with the highest incidence rates and lowest mortality rates observed in countries with very high HDI scores. Although mortality rates decreased in 29 countries with very high HDI scores, only 7 of these countries met or exceeded the 2.5% annual reduction target.

Limitations

Countries with low to medium HDI scores often lack robust national cancer registration systems which can impact on data quality and completeness, and lead to an under- or over-estimation of the breast cancer burden. 

Impact

The projected increases in the global breast cancer burden will be largely observed in those countries with less resource. To meet the GBCI targets and reduce the numbers of preventable deaths from a treatable disease, a comprehensive approach to implement strategies to facilitate timely diagnosis and access to effective treatments in countries with low to medium HDI scores.

Summary author:

Oliver Tan: Medical Student, King's College London

Supervisor: Dr Toral Gathani, Associate Professor, University of Oxford and Consultant Oncoplastic Breast Surgeon, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust